IndiaCore logo IndiaCore
Benchmarking Irrigation



Featured Reports & Publications
 Upcoming Titles


Overview of New & Renewable Energy Sectors in India


Energy Efficiency Scenario in India

India Core Reports
 




IndiaCore Site




 

 

 
 
 

External Sector

The robust external sector outcome is witnessed due to correction in the international prices of crude petroleum in the second half of the current fiscal, build up of foreign exchange reserves (USD 328.7 billion at end- January 2015) and stable exchange rate movement.

Over the last ten years, India’s merchandise trade (on customs basis) increased from USD195.1 billion in 2004-05 to USD764.6 billion in 2013–14. India’s ranking among leading exporters and importers improved from 30 and 23 in 2004, to 19 an d 12 respectively in 2013.

While India’s total merchandise trade as a proportion of GDP increased from 29.0 per cent in 2004-05 to 41.8 per cent in 2013–14, India’s merchandise exports as a proportion of GDP increased from 12.1 per cent to 17.0 per cent during the same two time periods. In 2014–15(April-January), imports grew by 2.2 per cent to USD 383.4 billion as compared to USD375.3 billion in 2013–14 (April-January).

Manufactured goods constitute the bulk of exports: over 63.0 per cent, followed by crude and petroleum products (including coal) with a 20.0 per cent share, and agriculture and allied products with a share of 13.7 per cent.

In 2014–15 (April-January) trade deficit increased by 1.6 per cent to USD118.4 billion as against USD 116.5 billion in 2013–14 (April-January).

To counter elevated levels of trade deficit, the government took numerous measures aimed at boosting the performance of the export including the anti-dumping measures. Also, various sectors schemes were strengthened, viz. Focus Product Schemes (FPS), Focus Market Scheme (FMS), Market Linked Focus Product Scheme (MLFPS) and Vishesh Krishi and Gram Udyog Yojana (VKGUY).

India’s total external debt at end-March 2014 stood at USD 442.3 billion, reporting an increase of USD 32.8 billion (8.0 per cent) over the end of March 2013. This indicates external debt to GDP ratio of 23.5 per cent and debt service ratio of 5.9 per cent in 2013–14. As per the latest data, India’s external debt stock increased by USD13.7 billion (3.1 per cent) to USD455.9 billion at the end of September 2014 over the end of March 2014.

On point-to-point basis the rupee has depreciated by 3.3 per cent from INR 60.1 per USD on 28 March 2014 to INR 62.1 per USD on 13 February 2015.

Manufacturing and services exports, both have slowed down in the last five years. The trading environment has become more challenging as the position of Indian exports has declined with respect to world growth and also because the negotiation of mega regional trading arrangements threatens to exclude India.

Capital Markets

 

Inflation

Average Inflation Rate seasonally adjusted and annualized, has declined from nearly 15 percent to below 5 percent in 2014-15. Structural shifts in the inflationary process are underway caused by lower oil prices and deceleration in agriculture prices and wages. These are simultaneously being reflected in dramatically improved household inflation expectations. The economy is likely to over- perform on the RBI’s inflation target by about 0.5-1.0 percentage point, opening up the space for further monetary policy easing.

Interestingly, the momentum of food prices has declined even more and is at levels below overall inflation. Going forward, this momentum is likely to persist because of three striking developments in three areas that signal a structural shift in the inflationary process in India: crude-oil, agriculture, and inflation expectations.

Crude-oil prices are expected to remain benign in the coming months. Indeed, the average of estimates by the IMF for (crude spot) and by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude indicates that oil prices will be about 29 percent lower in 2015-16 compared with 2014-15 (US$ 59 versus US$ 82).

Second, in addition to oil prices, India’s inflation will be shaped by pressures from agriculture, foreign and domestic. According to World Bank projections, global agricultural prices will remain muted- a likely decline of 4.8 percent in 2015 relative to 2014. This will likely have a key impact in moderating increases in domestic support prices.

The most dramatic structural change relates to wage pressures. Wage growth has declined to about 3.6 percent from over 20 percent. If these trends continue, rural wage growth can continue to decelerate, further moderating inflationary pressures.

The third factor relates to inflation expectations. Until recently, household surveys of inflation expectation conducted by the RBI showed that expectations have been stubbornly persistent and at levels well above actual inflation. But in the most recent survey they dropped by nearly 7-8 percentage points over all horizons. If this change conveys some information, inflation expectations will increasingly be anchored at more reasonable levels, moderating wage setting.

Economic Reforms

Way back in 1951, India adopted the Soviet model of planning by setting targets in each sectors for a five year period and was a controlled economy. Situations created by poor balance of payments, rupee devaluation, rising oil pool deficit, inflation, sluggish capital markets, general industrial slowdown, financial strains created in part by the Gulf War and the Asian & global recession provided impetus to economic reforms initiated in 1991.

The wide ranging program of economic reforms covered economic liberalization, reducing government controls on production, trade & investment, abolition of industrial licensing- except for strategic industries, abolition of import licensing, deregulation of interest rates, full convertibility of the rupee on current account, automatic approval of FDI in many sectors, opening of areas previously reserved only for the public sector to the private sector, realignment of direct taxes & tariffs etc.

The process of economic liberalization has transformed the Indian economy from an inward looking & highly regulated economy to a transparent & market oriented one with emphasis on private sector participation. The second wave of the reforms process in the various sectors of economy including petroleum, power, ports, roadways and telecom has also contributed to the process of transformation that we see today.

As a result of these far reaching changes, India has moved firmly into the front ranks of the fastest growing economies in the world. The economy has made significant strides over the last two decades with average growth rising from a low level of 2.9% in the seventies to 5.8% in the nineties and 8- 9% presently.

The awareness of the benefits of economic reforms have gained currency among the Indian public following the achievements of macro economic stability, accompanied by accelerated economic growth. Consequently, the process of economic growth has gained national consensus. The Congress led UPA Government formed in 2004 reaffirmed its commitment to the process of economic reforms. However due to compulsions of running a coalition government dependent on outside support of left parties, key reform measures have been stalled.

Infrastructure Sectors

Though India has progressed immensely over the last sixty five years, India faces the formidable challenge of meeting the basic requirements of one billion plus people, who increasingly aspire for a better quality of life. The Infrastructure needed to meet this requirement in terms of roads, ports, airports, electricity, communication facilities, health facilities, education facilities, petroleum etc calls for huge investments in the next few years.

Meeting infrastructure requirements in one sector may not be sufficient as one area is linked to another through the supply chain that ultimately delivers electricity, water and other commodities to the consumers. These links, crucial for the growth and development of India include power plants, electricity transmission & distribution systems, telecommunication systems, water treatment plants, ports, roads & expressways, bridges, pipelines, railways, tracks, airports, product handling and storage facilities (coal, oil and others), etc. In addition, there are the allied requirements of trucks, ships, tankers, tankages, terminals, jetties, barges, tank wagons, truck wagons etc.

The infrastructure sector constitutes the backbone of any growing economy. Strong & robust infrastructure facilities at reasonable cost are absolutely necessary if rapid economic growth is to be achieved and sustained. The Tenth Five Year Plan has targeted an annual growth of 8 per cent in GDP over 2002- 07 as compared to the average of 5.6 to 5.7 per cent recorded during the eighties and nineties. However, further acceleration of growth requires significant investments in infrastructure. The energy- transport infrastructure, in particular, will be a major determinant of an acceleration in GDP growth.

The NDA Government attaches the highest priority to the development & expansion of physical infrastructure like roads, highways, ports, power, railways, water supply, sewage treatment and sanitation. ‘Public investment in infrastructure will be enhanced, even as the role of the private sector is expanded. Subsidies will be made explicit and provided through the budget’.

Infrastructure Sectors Growth & Physical Performance

Trends in Output of Infrastructure Industries (Growth in %age)

INDUSTRY

Weight in IIP

1998- 99

1999- 00

2000- 01

2001- 02

2002- 03

2003- 04

2004- 05

2005- 06 @

Electricity

10.17

6.6

7.2

3.9

3.1

3.2

5.0

5.2

6.7

Coal

3.22

- 2.1

3.1

3.5

4.2

 4.6

5.1

3.9

9.7

Finished Steel

5.13

1.4

15.0

6.4

3.6

10.1

6.9

3.7

7.6

Crude Oil

4.17

- 3.4

- 2.4

1.5

- 1.2

3.2

1.0

1.8

- 1.2

Petroleum Refinery

2.00

5.2

25.4

20.3

3.7

4.9

8.2

4.3

- 6.9

Cement

1.99

5.7

14.2

- 0.9

7.4

8.8

6.1

6.6

5.0

OVERALL

26.68

2.8

9.1

5.1

3.2

5.6

5.4

4.4

4.9

Base: 1993- 94= 100; @ April- May 2005

Physical Output Performance of Infrastructure Industries

Sectors' Output

1999- 00

2000- 01

2001- 02

2002- 03

2003- 04*

2004- 05

2005- 06 @

Electricity (Million KWH)

480682

499548

515247

531594

558134

587366

103441

Coal (Million Tonnes)

299

310

323

337

355

375

61

Finished Steel (Thousand Tonnes)

28464

30289

31372

34528

36925

38325

6726

Crude Oil (Thousand Tonnes)

31949

32427

32032

33044

33384

33981

5632

Petroleum Refinery Products (Thousand Tonnes)

79946

96203

99765

104680

113241

118216

18557

Cement (Thousand Tonnes)

100450

99520

106900

116348

123440

131559

23200

* Provisional; @ April- May 2005

Upcoming IndiaCore Organised/ Partnered/ Supported/ Endorsed Events

India Smart Utility Week 2019, March 12– 16, 2019 || New Delhi, INDIA

The Economic Times Global Innovation Congress 2019 (GIC), March 15, 2019|| Mumbai, INDIA

global-innovation-congress-2019


Raw Materials, Technology, Market and Applications for Iron & Steel Industry 2019, March 15, 2019 || New Delhi, INDIA


Middle East Heart Congress 2019, March 18- 19, 2019 || Dubai, UAE

middle-east-heart-congress-2019


Human Metabolic Health- Diabetes, Obesity & Metabolism 2019, March 21- 22, 2019 || Dubai, UAE

human-metabolic-health-diabetes-obesity-and-metabolism


2nd BV Tech Expo & India E-Vehicle Show 2019, March 22- 24, 2019 || New Delhi, INDIA

bv-tech-expo-and-india-e-vehicle-show-2019


13th Global Pharmacovigilance & Clinical Trials Summit 2019, March 28- 29, 2019 || Japan

global-pharmacovigilance-and-clinical-trials-summit-2019


Industry Future Forward Summit 2019, March 29, 2019 || Chennai, INDIA

industry-future-forward-summit-2019


4th International Pumps, Valves, Pipes&Compressors exhibition, TBA || ABU DHABI

pvpc-expo-2019


Coaltrans China 2019, April 8- 10, 2019 || Shangai, China

coaltrans-china-2019


Tech Supply Chain Conference & Exposition 2019, April 11- 12, 2019 || Bengaluru, INDIA

tech-supply-chain-2019


5th World Heart Congress 2019, April 15- 16 2019 || Amsterdam, Netherlands

5-world-heart-congress-2019


Ophthalmology Summit 2019, April 18– 19, 2019 || Rome, Italy

insights-in-ophthalmology-2019


Pediatric Cardiology and Health 2019, April 22- 23 2019 || Madrid, Spain

pediatric-cardiology-and-health-2019


RenewX 2019, April 26- 27, 2019|| Hyderabad, India


The 9th Asia-Pacific Floor Fair 2019, May 9- 11, 2019 || Guangzhou

ninth-asia-pacific-floor-fair-2019


13th China (Guangzhou) International Billiards Exhibition 2019, May 9- 11, 2019 || Guangzhou

13-china-international-billiards-exhibition-2019


ASEAN Sustainable Energy Week 2019, June 5- 8, 2019 || Bangkok, THAILAND

asean-sustainable-energy-week-2019


6th International Conference on Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine 2019, June 17- 18, 2019 || Dublin, Ireland


31st Annual Cardiologists Conference 2019, June 17- 19, 2019 || Rome, Italy


Coaltrans Asia 2019, June 23- 25, 2019 || Nusa Dua, Indonesia

coaltrans-asia-2019


Coaltrans Poland 2019, June 2019


International Conference on Biomarkers and Clinical Research 2019, July 15- 16, 2019|| Abu Dhabi, UAE

India Surface Treatment and Finishing Expo 2019, August 8- 10, 2019 || New Delhi, INDIA

istf-expo-2019


World Pediatric Cardiology and Cardiothoracic Surgery Congress, September 9- 10, 2019 || Dubai, UAE


The 2nd POWER WEEK AFRICA 2019, September 9- 13, 2019 || Johannesburg

power-week-africa-2019


Coaltrans Asia Pacific 2019, September 2019


Coaltrans South Africa 2019, September 2019


Coaltrans Africa 2019, September 2019


Coaltrans School of Coal (Europe) 2019, September 2019 || Oxford,UK


Coaltrans Emerging Asian Coal Markets 2019, October/November 2019


32nd European Cardiology Conference, October 24- 26, 2019 || Zurich, Switzerland


The 5th POWER WEEK ASIA 2019, November 11- 15, 2019 || Singapore

power-week-asia-2019


13th International Conference on Surgery and Anaesthesia 2019, November 14- 15, 2019|| Brisbane, Australia


World Conference on Vaccine and Immunology, November 21- 22, 2019 || Dubai, UAE


Road Infrastructure- Safety, Operation & Management, TBA || Mumbai. INDIA


Mining & Mineral Exploration Conclave- ‘Need for Modernisation & Capacity Enhancement in the Indian Mining Industry’, TBA || New Delhi. INDIA


The Madhya Pradesh Agri Summit & Mela, (TBA) || Bhopal. Madhya Pradesh


'Thermal Power India’, TBA || New Delhi. INDIA

TPI-2012


Indian Solar Thermal Energy & PV Conference, TBA || New Delhi. INDIA


Energy Efficiency Forum, TBA || New Delhi. INDIA


Smart Energy & Smart Metering India- 'Convergence of IT, Automation, Control & Communication', TBA || New Delhi. INDIA


Tech Supply Chain Conference & Exposition 2019, April 11- 12, 2019 || Bengaluru, INDIA
Directories
Conference Proceedings
 

Join our Mailing List to receive Information Updates on Events, Happenings, Book Release, Developments in the Core Sector

IndiaCore listing

 
       
IndiaCore Banner
 


Copyright © IndiaCore. All Rights Reserved. Terms of Use & Privacy Policy
Site Designed & Maintained by India Core
IndiaCore.com - The Online Resource for Information on the Indian Infrastructure & Core Sectors